Sal Frelick's Struggles: A Closer Look at a Brewers' Conundrum
The Milwaukee Brewers find themselves in a predicament with Sal Frelick. Once a promising young talent, Frelick has been struggling at the plate and in the field, raising concerns among fans and analysts alike. With the team's recent signing of Luis Lara, the pressure on Frelick's playing time intensifies. But is it time to write off Frelick's potential?
The Offense Conundrum
Frelick's offensive woes are evident in his Statcast data. His exit velocities, barrel percentage, and hard-hit percentage have been consistently poor, placing him in the bottom 10% of the league. This trend is not new; Frelick's performance has been underwhelming since 2025. However, a closer look reveals some intriguing nuances.
Despite his struggles, Frelick's ability to not strike out and square up the ball at an elite clip is impressive. He has been maximizing theoretical exit velocity, a skill he possessed last season as well. The issue lies in his ground ball percentage, which has increased significantly this year. Frelick's batted ball data shows a higher percentage of 'topped' balls, indicating that he is hitting too many grounders. This is further supported by his low launch angle, which has dropped from 12.1 degrees in 2025 to 8.3 degrees this season.
The key takeaway is that Frelick's performance this year is a continuation of his struggles, not a sudden decline. His low exit velocity and barrel percentage leave him with limited wiggle room. If he fails to hit line drives, he risks numerous outs, especially with his grounders. This realization prompts a deeper question: is Frelick's current performance a result of luck, or is it a sign of a repeatable approach that needs adjustments?
Defensive Concerns
The defensive aspect of Frelick's game is even more alarming. His performance in the field has taken a significant hit, with Statcast's Outs Above Average and Defensive Runs Saved metrics placing him in the 28th percentile. This is a stark contrast to his previous seasons, where he was in the 85th and 79th percentiles, respectively.
The decline in Frelick's defensive abilities is multifaceted. His range, once in the 90th percentile, has dropped to the 48th percentile. Additionally, his arm strength and value have suffered, with Frelick now in the 9th percentile in arm value and 44th in arm strength. The speculation that Frelick might be playing hurt adds another layer of complexity, as his pain reactions during games could be a result of an injury.
A Case for Patience
Despite the concerns, Frelick's future with the Brewers is not entirely bleak. At 26 years old, he has earned some patience, especially considering his solid major-league performance last season with a 3.6 fWAR. Frelick's hard work and status as Pat Murphy's favorite make him a valuable asset to the team.
The author advocates for giving Frelick a chance to turn things around, citing his potential for positive regression. While Lara's arrival in Nashville is a concern, Frelick's injury concerns and the uncertainty surrounding Lara's performance make it a calculated risk. The Brewers should consider Frelick's role in their past and future, recognizing his contributions and potential for improvement.
